Investment advice disclosure

1. What this platform is

BacktoFuture is an information and research platform. It applies published, named academic and statistical methods to historical market data and publishes the result of that computation.

Every figure shown to a subscriber is expressed as an information object — a probability, a historical base rate, a distribution, a dispersion band or a scenario range — and is accompanied by the method it came from, so that the reader can check the source and judge it independently.

• Probabilities and historical base rates computed over disclosed lookback windows.
• Scenario and dispersion bands describing how an instrument has behaved in comparable historical conditions.
• Descriptive statistics, risk metrics and simulation output, always labelled as simulation.
• A named academic method or study attached to every published claim.

2. What this platform is not

The following are not offered anywhere in this platform, to any user, at any subscription level. They are excluded structurally, not merely by this notice.

• No investment advice and no personalised recommendation.
• No buy, sell or hold instruction, signal-to-act, or directive framing of any kind.
• No price targets, target prices, or fair-value verdicts presented as expected prices.
• No portfolio management, no discretionary management, no allocation instruction.
• No order execution, order transmission, brokerage or custody. The platform is not connected to any broker and cannot place an order.
• No guarantee, promise or projection of return.
• No solicitation or offer to buy or sell any capital markets instrument.

3. Legal basis under Turkish law

Investment advisory is a licensed investment service under the Capital Markets Law No. 6362 and the Capital Markets Board (SPK) Communiqué on Principles Regarding Investment Services, Activities and Ancillary Services (III-37.1). It may only be provided by institutions authorised by the SPK, and only to a specific client, under a written framework agreement, after the client's risk and return preferences, financial position and knowledge have been assessed under a suitability (yerindelik) test.

BacktoFuture does not hold such an authorisation, does not enter into an investment advisory framework agreement, does not perform a suitability or appropriateness assessment, and does not produce client-specific output. Therefore the content published here is general information and falls outside the scope of investment advisory.

4. Standard notice

The information, commentary and analyses presented here are not within the scope of investment advisory. Investment advisory services are provided by authorised institutions on a client-specific basis, taking each person's risk and return preferences into account. The content here is general in nature. It may not be suitable for your financial situation or your risk and return preferences. An investment decision based only on the information here may therefore not produce a result consistent with your expectations.

Consult an SPK-authorised investment institution before acting on any information you find here.

5. The academic basis requirement

The platform's design rule is that no claim reaches a subscriber without a traceable method behind it. Where a score, band, probability or narrative is shown, the method that produced it — and the study or literature it is derived from — is carried with it.

This is what a subscription pays for: access to academically grounded information, computed reproducibly. It is not a payment for a decision, an opinion, or a forecast of a specific price.

6. Statistical limits you must assume

Statistical output is a description of the past under stated assumptions, not a description of the future.

• Past performance and historical base rates do not predict future results.
• Backtests and simulations are hypothetical. They do not include the full effect of trading costs, slippage, liquidity limits, taxes or the behaviour of a real counterparty.
• Model risk is real: any method can be misspecified, overfitted to its sample, or invalidated by a regime change.
• Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or incorrectly adjusted for corporate actions.
• A probability is not a prediction. A 70% historical base rate still means the other outcome happened roughly three times in ten.

7. Your responsibility

Any investment decision you make is your own decision, made at your own risk, and is your sole responsibility. You are responsible for evaluating whether any information here is relevant to your circumstances, and for obtaining independent, licensed advice where you need it.

Neither the operator of this platform nor its personnel accept liability for losses arising from decisions taken on the basis of the content published here.